Crypto Vault

Market Phases
Accumulation // Thrust // Distribution

A clean, non-technical way to tell what phase a coin is in — with simple checks, examples, and copy-ready lists you can use during live sessions.

Accumulation: quiet positioning • Thrust: structured momentum • Distribution: orderly exits

// Start here

Most market movement cycles through three readable phases. Learn the feel of each: Accumulation (quiet positioning), Thrust (clean momentum), and Distribution (orderly exits / topping behaviour).

Plain-English idea

Accumulation removes supply from easy sale. Thrust is when price + volume + structure march in the same direction with clean pullbacks. Distribution hands inventory to late entrants while structure weakens.

// Accumulation — Quiet positioning

Signal tells

Support holds on closes; failed breaks don’t cascade; liquidity builds under price. The vibe is calm, not urgent.

// Thrust — Clean momentum

Signal tells

Break → hold → continue. Most dips tag a prior level (Open/ORL/ORH/VWAP) and resolve with momentum. Few messy overlaps.

// Distribution — Orderly exits

Signal tells

Plenty of range overlap, failed breakouts, and lower-highs. The vibe is insistent—urging you to chase.

// On-chain & Off-chain cues

Exchange Flows

Accumulation → outflows; Distribution → inflows. Thrust often rides outflows + rising spot volume.

  • Look for: net outflows (bullish), sustained inflows (caution), changes around unlocks.
  • Read with: price/volume context — flows alone aren’t enough.

Top Wallets

Track 7–30d deltas. Flat-up in large non-exchange wallets favors accumulation; sharp increases on exchange wallets can telegraph exits.

Hashrate / Validators

For PoW chains, steady/recovering hashrate into flat price = structural strength; sudden drops alongside inflows = caution.

Structure & Closes

Closes decide. Accumulation respects base closes; Thrust closes through levels; Distribution fails to hold reclaims.

// Shapes & examples (spot these in the wild)

Accumulation Shapes

  • Rounded base with failed breakdowns
  • Volatility compression triangle that doesn’t expand downward
  • Multiple taps of support with higher reaction highs

Thrust Shapes

  • Break → retest → continuation (BRnC)
  • Stair-step HL/HH or LH/LL without deep overlaps
  • Clean ORH/ORL reclaims that stick on closes

Distribution Shapes

  • Lower-highs into a flat support (bearish ascending wedge feel)
  • Range with frequent failed breakouts (“upwicks”)
  • Reclaims that fail on close; support becomes supply

// Checklists you can copy

Accumulation — 7-point check

  • Sideways/gradual up; failed breaks bought
  • Volatility compressing; volume mostly light
  • Exchange outflows > inflows; old coins resting
  • Top wallets flat-up; few large exchange inflows
  • Hashrate/validators steady or recovering
  • Dev updates > marketing; social quiet
  • Closes hold base; liquidity under price

Thrust — 7-point check

  • HH/HL (or inverse) with minimal overlap
  • Breakouts close beyond levels; retests quick
  • Volume expands on impulse, contracts on pullback
  • Net exchange outflows or stable balances
  • Top wallets not distributing
  • Reclaims stick; trendlines defended
  • Narrative rising but structure leads

Distribution — 7-point check

  • Lower-highs; choppy overlaps; failed reclaims
  • Exchange inflows increase; old coins move
  • Green pushes fade; red spikes stick
  • Support loses strength on closes
  • Top wallets lighten; marketing intensifies
  • Unlocks/listings cluster with “big news”
  • Urgent vibe; chase pressure

// Common traps

// Resources